Today I read a short front page newspaper article which said that 20% of the Dutch doesn't celebrate New Year's eve. People seem to be tired of celebrating and doing things they don't want to do. It's the stress factor a page filling article in the same newspaper told. People can't handle more than a month planning for the party month December. When read it I thought of my situation. After December 5 (which is a family-day with presents for the children and grand children and poems) I was asked when I was coming to X-mas dinner with my mother. There are 2 days you must know, December 25 and 26. My mother told me that the 2nd day she would go to The Hague, to my brother and his girlfriend. So I had to go for X-mas dinner to my mum on December 25.
My sister with her 3 children would also be there. The party could begin. Pfff, I'm not used to children. I brought 3 bars fair trade, slave free, Tony chocolonely chocolate for the children with me. 2 ate some chunks of it and left it, because there was so much to do. The oldest one saved her bar though. That's what I would have done at her age.
Soon we'll have the last party of the year: December 31. I think I belong to the 20% minority.
Still I wish you a peaceful 2009!
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Friedman's laisser faire
Milton Friedman on YouTube
Free markets, they make cars with names like KIA and they are sold.
Free markets are imperfect. Governmental interference is necessary.
Governmental interference is especially important nowadays in order to keep the economy running and cash flowing. The world economy comes to a halt if Governments don't support companies with works, like infrastructural works. It's like what happened in Germany in the '30 of the 20th century.
Hitler began to build the motorways, railroads and later huge war craft spending. It helped Germany. I'm not saying we need a third world war but we need Government to activate companies by for instance beginning infrastructural renewal earlier than scheduled. The same for city renewal, building new things. The Eiffel Tower boosted French economy in the 19th century. The world exhibition in Spain and Portugal in the 21st century did the same for the organizing cities. It's all public spending.
What the European Union does in new memberstates in Eastern Europe is also a kind of Governmental stimulus. What to think about Irish poverty before this country joined the EU and how it´s doing now. That island has value for the EU. First Governmental EU intevention had to stimulate companies to go Ireland.
In Holland we have a culture of mutual understanding between the social partners (Government, employers and employees). They must work together to get things done. For Instance, my country lies 5 metres below see level. Dikes keep the water out. That needs working together of the whole country, no one excluded, and that cannot be done by Friedman's -laisser faire, laissez aller- economic theory.
Also the social partners are working together in a bad economic situation to keep the negative effects (a rise in wages, extra inflation, dissatifaction of the people) as low as possible. We need mutual understanding and trust, that's called -het poldermodel-. Clinton knew it, the Dutch model, the poldermodel.
KIA means Killed In Action by the way. Would you drive a car named KIA or do you say what's in a name?
I'm sorry for those KIA and their relatives.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Salute Jeanette
Last night I got a phone call from a neighbor about my downstairs neighbor who is terminally ill. It's the cancer you know. It's affecting her liver. Tomorrow she'll be hospitalized in a so called hospice. She is at the end of her life. 13 Months after the final operation to remove the tumor she trows the towel. It's busy in her house, people come and go. Care isn't garantueed during the x-mas long holiday weekend. She fell in her house and is a little scared.
So, at noon tomorrow she will driven in an ambulance to the house where she will receive the attention and care she needs. It will be very emotional for her. It will probably her in her final descent in the house she lived in for more than 30 years. A descent on a stretcher, not even walking.
Salute Jeanette, you're a brave lady. Hopefully you don't suffer and have a fine X-mas and New Year's eve.
So, at noon tomorrow she will driven in an ambulance to the house where she will receive the attention and care she needs. It will be very emotional for her. It will probably her in her final descent in the house she lived in for more than 30 years. A descent on a stretcher, not even walking.
Salute Jeanette, you're a brave lady. Hopefully you don't suffer and have a fine X-mas and New Year's eve.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
ABNAMRO, Fortis, stakeholders and even life on earth
Imagine yourself. On September 24 2008 you get into a coma and in December 2008 you awake. Bit by bit you start to remember and realize things that happened. It's now, less than a week before x-mas when you start to walk, talk and come to consciousness again. It's a whole different world.
No, it's not the hilarious movie Goodbye Lenin. It's what happened in our times in the past months.
Now it's December 20 and the World is completely different. Some banks went bankrupt,
Obama won the American presidential election, worldwide economy collapsed, the worldwide automotive industry is almost broke, Iceland is on the brink of bankruptcy.
In the Netherlands Governmental intervention prevented 2 banks (ABNAMRO-bank and Fortis-bank), which had to become one bank, to fall. The USA, the European Union, other European nations, Russia, the far east all face a real recession.
In the USA Bernard Madoff, the founder and president of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities , told the police about his fraud in his brokerage firm. The media claims that it's a fraud as high as $50bn. I don't think so, it might be higher, much higher. Also this is probably not the only fraud which becomes obvious together with the fall of the financial system.
This financial crisis might somehow be good for the world economy. It shakes up real life and stresses the values that are really important: The fundamentals of the economy, not the derivative economy.
An example, and I tell you it's not a complaint; I invested € 20.000 in bonds which give a higher revenue when the reference price of the underlying stocks is going up. 2007 Was a profitable year, in 2008 however the bond plunged to 80 or less while 100 or higher is be profitable. Till 2012 I'll have bonds which don´t pay, after 2012 the underlying value will be payed. What, if my bank went broke? Hopefully the Government will support the backbones of the economy. I dislike derivatives as put and call options on company-stocks, specialized products like bonds which are linked to many stocks on invisible markets. It's all not so transparent as you think it is.
These fundamentals are a certain demand on the market and supply of that demand. In fact the demand-factor and supply-factor are the 2 things needed to create a market.
Of course nowadays we need money to trade. However we could do without.
Let's say we need a sound financial system as a ceteris paribus.
Problem is the world has no sound financial system. Regulators fail in many aspects. Banks fail in their task being transparent. According to George Soros in the crisis in global capitalism knowledge of fail-ability of an actor in economy is in certain way positive because it makes the actor aware of his position and the his need to change. (GS. warned the world in 1998 for an unstable (financial) future). A summary of the book.
In a situation of instability of the markets the Children's Investment Fund (CIF) claims in January 2007 that ABNAMRO-bank made to little profit for it's shareholders and other stakeholders. They urged a break-up or sale. This was the start of the Dutch banking crisis which affected all stakeholders. Even today almost 2 years after the carousel started. It's in the worst situation you can imagine.
The stock value plunged from € 5.= to € 0.93, banking personnel is not amused with the uncertain situation, banking customers are not amused with the bad prospectives for their banks whether it is ABNAMRO-bank or Fortis-bank and stock owners are not happy at all. So the theory of CIF didn't stand. All stakeholders are ripped or got away before the crisis started.
I wish you all a merry Christmas, a lot of lights and a fine X-mas tree. Let's celebrate life on earth because there is hope.
No, it's not the hilarious movie Goodbye Lenin. It's what happened in our times in the past months.
Now it's December 20 and the World is completely different. Some banks went bankrupt,
Obama won the American presidential election, worldwide economy collapsed, the worldwide automotive industry is almost broke, Iceland is on the brink of bankruptcy.
In the Netherlands Governmental intervention prevented 2 banks (ABNAMRO-bank and Fortis-bank), which had to become one bank, to fall. The USA, the European Union, other European nations, Russia, the far east all face a real recession.
In the USA Bernard Madoff, the founder and president of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities , told the police about his fraud in his brokerage firm. The media claims that it's a fraud as high as $50bn. I don't think so, it might be higher, much higher. Also this is probably not the only fraud which becomes obvious together with the fall of the financial system.
This financial crisis might somehow be good for the world economy. It shakes up real life and stresses the values that are really important: The fundamentals of the economy, not the derivative economy.
An example, and I tell you it's not a complaint; I invested € 20.000 in bonds which give a higher revenue when the reference price of the underlying stocks is going up. 2007 Was a profitable year, in 2008 however the bond plunged to 80 or less while 100 or higher is be profitable. Till 2012 I'll have bonds which don´t pay, after 2012 the underlying value will be payed. What, if my bank went broke? Hopefully the Government will support the backbones of the economy. I dislike derivatives as put and call options on company-stocks, specialized products like bonds which are linked to many stocks on invisible markets. It's all not so transparent as you think it is.
These fundamentals are a certain demand on the market and supply of that demand. In fact the demand-factor and supply-factor are the 2 things needed to create a market.
Of course nowadays we need money to trade. However we could do without.
Let's say we need a sound financial system as a ceteris paribus.
Problem is the world has no sound financial system. Regulators fail in many aspects. Banks fail in their task being transparent. According to George Soros in the crisis in global capitalism knowledge of fail-ability of an actor in economy is in certain way positive because it makes the actor aware of his position and the his need to change. (GS. warned the world in 1998 for an unstable (financial) future). A summary of the book.
In a situation of instability of the markets the Children's Investment Fund (CIF) claims in January 2007 that ABNAMRO-bank made to little profit for it's shareholders and other stakeholders. They urged a break-up or sale. This was the start of the Dutch banking crisis which affected all stakeholders. Even today almost 2 years after the carousel started. It's in the worst situation you can imagine.
The stock value plunged from € 5.= to € 0.93, banking personnel is not amused with the uncertain situation, banking customers are not amused with the bad prospectives for their banks whether it is ABNAMRO-bank or Fortis-bank and stock owners are not happy at all. So the theory of CIF didn't stand. All stakeholders are ripped or got away before the crisis started.
I wish you all a merry Christmas, a lot of lights and a fine X-mas tree. Let's celebrate life on earth because there is hope.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
sick
After being sick for 3 day's I went for a walk through the neighborhood and and bought the things I needed for a weekend. That means food and a newspaper. Tomorrow another day to stay inhouse and read the books.
It was cold outside, only 2 degrees and a northeast wind made me shiver. Walking made it better, made me warm. I took some pictures, which I haven't done for quite a while, of a new installed bridge. It took the builders 6 months to install, a fiasco for municipality. Also an early 20th century house with the advertising of those day's.
It was cold outside, only 2 degrees and a northeast wind made me shiver. Walking made it better, made me warm. I took some pictures, which I haven't done for quite a while, of a new installed bridge. It took the builders 6 months to install, a fiasco for municipality. Also an early 20th century house with the advertising of those day's.
Friday, December 12, 2008
George Soros
Seems to be a filantrophe.
He's written a lot of books about the imperfect economy, about the imperfection of the financial marketsystem and the imperfections of the actors on those markets. The latest book (2008) is tittled the international creditcrisis, subtittle the future of the financial markets.
There must be change of that global financial system. We're not in the day's of Bretton Woods anymore. Europe is almost united in the EU and the far east plays another important role. The world isn't anymore what it used to be.
The EU has come to an agreement (under chairmanship of French president Sarkozy) on climate change, the credit crisis, the Irish no previous this year and other things.
While googling on some international English news about the EU-top, I found an artivle of Martin Kettle in the Guardian of 12 December 2008.
You should know that there are some tensions between the Anglo-American (Great Britain) and Rhineland bookkeepers (France, Germany, the Netherlands, etcetera) which model is adequate dealing with the present crisis. I think none of those models because of the reflexivity of the markets. Soros explained that in a 1998 book, tittled The crisis of global economy, subtittle the downfall of the free world.
The person who makes a model which explains the problems we face now, can earn a lot of money when he also knows the shortcomings of his model (because everything is liable to error as Soros said)
He's written a lot of books about the imperfect economy, about the imperfection of the financial marketsystem and the imperfections of the actors on those markets. The latest book (2008) is tittled the international creditcrisis, subtittle the future of the financial markets.
There must be change of that global financial system. We're not in the day's of Bretton Woods anymore. Europe is almost united in the EU and the far east plays another important role. The world isn't anymore what it used to be.
The EU has come to an agreement (under chairmanship of French president Sarkozy) on climate change, the credit crisis, the Irish no previous this year and other things.
While googling on some international English news about the EU-top, I found an artivle of Martin Kettle in the Guardian of 12 December 2008.
You should know that there are some tensions between the Anglo-American (Great Britain) and Rhineland bookkeepers (France, Germany, the Netherlands, etcetera) which model is adequate dealing with the present crisis. I think none of those models because of the reflexivity of the markets. Soros explained that in a 1998 book, tittled The crisis of global economy, subtittle the downfall of the free world.
The person who makes a model which explains the problems we face now, can earn a lot of money when he also knows the shortcomings of his model (because everything is liable to error as Soros said)
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Friday, December 05, 2008
where did my money go?
Geert Wilders his movie Fitna still makes the world not save for him. Who cares?
The Dutch should because the threats against the nation are still there and those threats feel like a burden if you're sensitive for it.
A spokesman of his party was asked about Wilders' opinion. He referred to Wilders himself. He would not answer the question himself. According to a political satire it´s good not to express his opinion because to secure one man in today´s turmoil is expensive enough.
Maybe he's with Ayaan Hirshi Ali in the US. Nobody knows him in the US. ;-)
At work the question was raised where all the money went to due to the credit crisis.
Where did the money go to? If you take everything into consideration the international financial system lost 90 billion Euro.
My simplification:
Banks have had balance sheet values which didn't have the value after facing the sub prime loans affair. In the US banks collapsed directly due to this affair. Banks in Europe followed with serious financial problems.
Let's go back where it started. Let's suppose it started in the US, where people have dreams and where dreams can come true with hard work. Where people with small wages can buy a homes because of the sub prime loans.
Mortgage company lend money -> Real estate agents earn their fee -> People pimp their houses -> Stores earn money -> US have a trade surplus -> Exporting countries are doing well (Dutch export should rise too but the Euro became to expensive -> Flourishing labour market on US and Euro side of the Atlantic -> Bouncing industry and trade -> Citizen in US and Europe are doing well financially -> signs of weakness became obvious when the Internet bubble burst in 2000/2001 -> 7 years later, after excessive spending, the financial bubble burst.
Who has earned on these collapses? The people (= you & me) did in the past years.
Who is gonna pay for it? the people (you & me) will in the coming years.
The Dutch should because the threats against the nation are still there and those threats feel like a burden if you're sensitive for it.
A spokesman of his party was asked about Wilders' opinion. He referred to Wilders himself. He would not answer the question himself. According to a political satire it´s good not to express his opinion because to secure one man in today´s turmoil is expensive enough.
Maybe he's with Ayaan Hirshi Ali in the US. Nobody knows him in the US. ;-)
At work the question was raised where all the money went to due to the credit crisis.
Where did the money go to? If you take everything into consideration the international financial system lost 90 billion Euro.
My simplification:
Banks have had balance sheet values which didn't have the value after facing the sub prime loans affair. In the US banks collapsed directly due to this affair. Banks in Europe followed with serious financial problems.
Let's go back where it started. Let's suppose it started in the US, where people have dreams and where dreams can come true with hard work. Where people with small wages can buy a homes because of the sub prime loans.
Mortgage company lend money -> Real estate agents earn their fee -> People pimp their houses -> Stores earn money -> US have a trade surplus -> Exporting countries are doing well (Dutch export should rise too but the Euro became to expensive -> Flourishing labour market on US and Euro side of the Atlantic -> Bouncing industry and trade -> Citizen in US and Europe are doing well financially -> signs of weakness became obvious when the Internet bubble burst in 2000/2001 -> 7 years later, after excessive spending, the financial bubble burst.
Who has earned on these collapses? The people (= you & me) did in the past years.
Who is gonna pay for it? the people (you & me) will in the coming years.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Your Mamma Won't Like Me
The title is exactly what it says. I found it in the possessions of the woman my father had a relation with after my dad and mother broke up. I was 13 or 14 years old when I found it and the song wasn´t quite as bad as the genre supposed to be.
Googling I found this video on YouTube. You like it or you do not.
Googling I found this video on YouTube. You like it or you do not.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Testimony
Maybe it's time to inform the world about my neighbor with a bad aggressive cancer.
I wrote you about her in my blog in September 2007.
Her situation worsened that should be clear. She was operated more than a year ago and she recovered slowly, first without a voice. Then it seemed doctors made an error during the operation which resulted in another way using her voice. When the days got warmer she went outside for a walk but it was to much, she fainted several again. She even got dizzy in her house. When Summer past she hardly went outside. A wheelchair was arranged to go for a walk with her. But when Autumn arrived and the weather worsened she stayed inside. Afraid to catch a cold. She became more and more tired because she was locked in in her own apartment. Days past and many visitors came. They had some smalltalk about the past and the things they had together. She wrote her testimony and made a list of things she would give away. Dead is near.
She got morphine and other painkillers. A wrong dose and she had a trip. A roller coaster ride in her bed. She was afraid that night. After that night her friends made a schedule to sleep in her house and watch over her.
Some weeks ago she phoned me and told in which condition she was. The doctors give me 5 till 7 weeks, she told, I might not be here anymore when Christmas arrives.
Her liver grows and doesn't work properly. Also it presses against her lungs so she gets short-winded.
She has a hospital bed in the middle of her living room, a lot of people who care for her and morphine to endure the pain. She said that it's the worst illness one can have. It damages the whole of her body. Luckily not her mind.
She has mentioned euthanasia as a possible way of dying. Her feeding machine prevents her from dying. She gets enough Joules to stay alive. Normally people with cancer get weak because they don't eat anymore and die. It's a simplification but in the end it's the truth.
I wrote you about her in my blog in September 2007.
Her situation worsened that should be clear. She was operated more than a year ago and she recovered slowly, first without a voice. Then it seemed doctors made an error during the operation which resulted in another way using her voice. When the days got warmer she went outside for a walk but it was to much, she fainted several again. She even got dizzy in her house. When Summer past she hardly went outside. A wheelchair was arranged to go for a walk with her. But when Autumn arrived and the weather worsened she stayed inside. Afraid to catch a cold. She became more and more tired because she was locked in in her own apartment. Days past and many visitors came. They had some smalltalk about the past and the things they had together. She wrote her testimony and made a list of things she would give away. Dead is near.
She got morphine and other painkillers. A wrong dose and she had a trip. A roller coaster ride in her bed. She was afraid that night. After that night her friends made a schedule to sleep in her house and watch over her.
Some weeks ago she phoned me and told in which condition she was. The doctors give me 5 till 7 weeks, she told, I might not be here anymore when Christmas arrives.
Her liver grows and doesn't work properly. Also it presses against her lungs so she gets short-winded.
She has a hospital bed in the middle of her living room, a lot of people who care for her and morphine to endure the pain. She said that it's the worst illness one can have. It damages the whole of her body. Luckily not her mind.
She has mentioned euthanasia as a possible way of dying. Her feeding machine prevents her from dying. She gets enough Joules to stay alive. Normally people with cancer get weak because they don't eat anymore and die. It's a simplification but in the end it's the truth.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Rote Armee Fraction
Nah Klar, nach 26 Jahren Haft für Mord auf Hanns-Martin Schleyer, Siegfried Buback und Jürgen Ponto in 1977 und andere.
Did he really changed his view on the world? I hope so because the world changed after 1982.
Did he really changed his view on the world? I hope so because the world changed after 1982.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Joe the plumber
In both campaigns of John McCain and Barack Obama they mentioned Joe the plumber as a hard working American with a small business making less than $250,000 a year.
I don't mind. The only thing I do mind is that all those Joe's don't have a certificate. They don't invest in proper education. They didn't pay the bill or their taxes. Excuse me, but isn't Joe the plumber not really Johnny Freerider?
It's not only men like Joe the plumber I oppose. It's the free rider problem.
All over the world pharmacists do their work. Also in the Netherlands. They provide people with medicals to get healthy, stay healthy, or to compensate a deficit.
As the pharmacist are the providers of drugs they are a target for the chemical industry. When the pharmacist sell a lot of drugs of a certain drugs company, pharmacist will be annually overloaded with a bonus of the company. (bonuses of € 180,000,= exist)
This is a kind of freerider effect/behaviour. I'm sure this happens all over the world. Not only in a small town in the Netherlands.
The Dutch, the world should stand up against these practices because the average man in the street pays the bill in the end. We, all citizens of the world, pay for the freeloader behaviour of pharmacists.
The average man's the one who should count. The average man pays his bills, taxes, as long as he can. If Joe the plumber does this all and he's certified than Joe has a last name.
I don't mind. The only thing I do mind is that all those Joe's don't have a certificate. They don't invest in proper education. They didn't pay the bill or their taxes. Excuse me, but isn't Joe the plumber not really Johnny Freerider?
It's not only men like Joe the plumber I oppose. It's the free rider problem.
All over the world pharmacists do their work. Also in the Netherlands. They provide people with medicals to get healthy, stay healthy, or to compensate a deficit.
As the pharmacist are the providers of drugs they are a target for the chemical industry. When the pharmacist sell a lot of drugs of a certain drugs company, pharmacist will be annually overloaded with a bonus of the company. (bonuses of € 180,000,= exist)
This is a kind of freerider effect/behaviour. I'm sure this happens all over the world. Not only in a small town in the Netherlands.
The Dutch, the world should stand up against these practices because the average man in the street pays the bill in the end. We, all citizens of the world, pay for the freeloader behaviour of pharmacists.
The average man's the one who should count. The average man pays his bills, taxes, as long as he can. If Joe the plumber does this all and he's certified than Joe has a last name.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
November 4 2008
This election is excitement. I took a day off to follow the results at night. I'm informed now that we'll have a broadcast till 9 am. It seems not a good idea to watch all but at 1 am the first results will come in. (Kentucky and Indiana)
But it'll be historical, so I have to see it (on my tv-screen).
At 6.30 am the winner of the election for presidency will be known.
My newspaper will be delivered. The latest news will not be in it. Maybe the deadline is 2 am. Some smaller East coast States will be known.
But only at 7 am the polls in California will close. And it's possible that the 55 electors will not be important who is the next President of the USA.
But it'll be historical, so I have to see it (on my tv-screen).
At 6.30 am the winner of the election for presidency will be known.
My newspaper will be delivered. The latest news will not be in it. Maybe the deadline is 2 am. Some smaller East coast States will be known.
But only at 7 am the polls in California will close. And it's possible that the 55 electors will not be important who is the next President of the USA.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Foreign affairs
In a foreign country far away a new head of State will be elected. A President will be chosen. This seems to be a mayor important thing for the world. Every nation is awaiting who the next president will be. But for what? What will he bring to the world. What does the world know about the two male candidates for President of the United States of America?
Really nothing...One is talking about change and hope....but what kind of change, what kind of hope and for who?
Sunday afternoon just before cycling I had to look at an interesting political program. An interview with Kishore Mahbubani.
What the Western world not seems to realize is said by Kishore Mahbubani from Singapore. He is a philosopher and retired diplomat. The says that together with the economic growth of the power of the east (Brazil, India, China and others, also the Arab world) there will be a shift of the political and cultural center. The Asians (and Brazilians) have the future.
The Western world doesn't realize it according to mr. Mahbubani, but there will be a rapid change in structures which keep the world together.
The new President of the USA will not be able to stop the change.
For the West it's time to let the arrogance go and realize that this change is a window of opportunities.
Good luck America! Choose Obama :-)
Really nothing...One is talking about change and hope....but what kind of change, what kind of hope and for who?
Sunday afternoon just before cycling I had to look at an interesting political program. An interview with Kishore Mahbubani.
What the Western world not seems to realize is said by Kishore Mahbubani from Singapore. He is a philosopher and retired diplomat. The says that together with the economic growth of the power of the east (Brazil, India, China and others, also the Arab world) there will be a shift of the political and cultural center. The Asians (and Brazilians) have the future.
The Western world doesn't realize it according to mr. Mahbubani, but there will be a rapid change in structures which keep the world together.
The new President of the USA will not be able to stop the change.
For the West it's time to let the arrogance go and realize that this change is a window of opportunities.
Good luck America! Choose Obama :-)
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